000 AXNT20 KNHC 130604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO 04N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N16W TO 01N22W...ALONG THE EQUATOR TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 03S42W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 10W AND 18W AND FROM 01N TO 06N BETWEEN 18W AND 24W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07S TO 02N W OF 31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF...THUS PROVIDING RETURN WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE BASIN. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS BEING ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI NEAR 31N89W TO 28N88W TO 25N89W. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN CONTINUES TO ADVECT ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO THE NORTHERN GULF...WHICH ALONG A ZONE OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS TO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE EXTENDS INTO THE NW GULF AS SCATTERED MODERATE N OF 25N W OF 92W. OVER THE SW GULF...A 1004 MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 22N W OF 94W. AREAS OF DIFFLUENT FLOW WITHIN AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BASIN THROUGH WED NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS TO THE NORTHERN AND SE CARIBBEAN WHILE LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES ON THE SW BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A 1008 MB LOW N OF PANAMA NEAR 10N78W. THIS IS SUPPORTING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN...THUS RESULTING IN TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN 64W AND 80W. ELSEWHERE TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WHICH ALONG A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BASIN SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...WITHIN 150 NM OF THE COASTS OF SOUTHERN NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA AND NORTHERN PANAMA. EXCEPT FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER SW CUBA COASTAL WATERS...FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. NOT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ...HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC SW ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING WITH THE TRADES ACROSS THE ISLAND ALONG WITH LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SUPPORT CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS OVER COASTAL WATERS ARE OF 20 TO 25 KT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION...WHICH TRANSITIONS INTO A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 31N63W TO 29N69W TO 29N75W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND A REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 26N W OF THE FRONT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 28N47W. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BEING ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 27N65W TO 23N68W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NE ATLC NEAR 34N21W CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N19W SW TO 27N27W TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N35W. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. THE FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR