000 AXNT20 KNHC 121742 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO 02N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N16W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 21W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-08N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 10W...AND FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 12W-16W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING A FEW AREAS OF WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING EAST- NORTHEASTWARD...STRETCHING FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA. THE PARENT TROUGH TO THIS ENERGY IS NOTED TO THE WEST OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO. THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE ENHANCING CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE BASIN NW OF A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR TUXPAN. MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM THE COAST INLAND ALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA ALONG 31N TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH S-SE RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES THE GULF COASTAL PLAIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS INFLUENCED BY UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TO NICARAGUA NEAR. THE MAJORITY OF THIS FLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE ALOFT WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WEST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 62W-68W...AND ACROSS COASTAL WESTERN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA WHERE CLOUDINESS IS ENHANCED WITHIN A MAXIMUM AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ...HISPANIOLA... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND CURRENTLY AS WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT. GIVEN INCREASED DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N67W. THE FRONT CONTINUES W-SW TO 31N75W AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR JACKSONVILLE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 76W-79W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N47W TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W. FARTHER EAST...WHILE THE RIDGING HOLDS IN PLACE...A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED ON THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THE FIRST IS FROM 23N59W TO 27N57W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 55W-59W...AND THE SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 22N68W TO 26N65W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 29N47W. HOWEVER...A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 36N23W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N23W TO 30N33W. THE FRONT CONTINUES WESTWARD GENERALLY STATIONARY ALONG 30N TO 31N43W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN