000 AXNT20 KNHC 120528 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W ALONG 4N17W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS THEN CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 2N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E OF 6W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA BETWEEN 8W-10W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 1N-4N BETWEEN 6W-11W AND FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 9W-24W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 1N-3N W OF 48W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC COVERS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THIS FLOW IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO OVER THE NEW ENGLAND SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF ACROSS TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA THEN MEANDERS ALONG 29N87W 28N95W WHERE IT DISSIPATES OVER S TEXAS BETWEEN CORPUS CHRISTI AND BROWNSVILLE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 88W-94W AND N OF 23N W OF 94W. THE FRONT WILL LIFT N OF THE AREA BY MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM W CUBA TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE DEEP TROPICS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA ARE WINDING DOWN TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND ARE BANKING SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S NICARAGUA AND W OF 81W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES EXPECTED ACROSS THE W AND E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE MID WEEK. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HISPANIOLA... AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE ISLAND ARE WINDING DOWN TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING W OF 70W. THE PATTERN OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND NEW ENGLAND IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT WELL N OF THE AREA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SE GEORGIA JUST N OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N W OF 76W TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS WITH THE ONE ALONG 56W FROM 21N-26W AND THE SECOND ALONG 65W FROM 20N-27N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN THE TROUGHS FROM 22N- 26N BETWEEN 59W-63W. THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 29N48W. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL RETREAT E ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE W ATLC. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS ON SUN THEN STALL FROM 32N58W ALONG 29N65W TO THE NW BAHAMAS EARLY MON WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH MID WEEK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW