000 AXNT20 KNHC 111035 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N17W ALONG 5N20W TO 2N25W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS THEN CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 28W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 5W-14W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR W OF 40W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ TO ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. THIS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT WEAKENS AS IT ENTERS THE GULF ACROSS MOBILE ALABAMA THEN CLIPS THE SE PORTION OF LOUISIANA BEFORE CONTINUING ALONG 28N94W TO 27N96W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY THEN INLAND OVER S TEXAS BETWEEN CORPUS CHRISTI AND BROWNSVILLE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N93W TO 23N95W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 250 NM SE OF THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO RETREAT EAST. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT E AND STALL ALONG 29N/30N THIS EVENING THEN DRIFT INLAND AND DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE DEEP TROPICS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND THUS DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS AREA W OF 75W. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND S NICARAGUA S OF 12N W OF 81W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES EXPECTED ACROSS THE W AND E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE MID WEEK. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THIS ISLAND. THE PATTERN OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N60W ACROSS THE W ATLC AND CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS IS AMPLIFYING THE UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND S FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N73W GIVING THE AREA WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE SE COAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 30N. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 32N24W 29N36W THROUGH A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 29N48W THEN ALONG 30N65W TO FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY RETREAT EASTWARD THROUGH TODAY ENABLING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SINK INTO THE W ATLC THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL DRAG E ACROSS THE REMAINING NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH TUE NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW