000 AXNT20 KNHC 110535 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W ALONG 6N19W 4N25W TO 2N28W. THE ITCZ BEGINS S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 38W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ TO ACROSS NE FLORIDA ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT WEAKENS AS IT ENTERS THE GULF JUST S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA ALONG 28N95W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS JUST N OF BROWNSVILLE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N93W TO 21N96W. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE LIFT OF THE FRONT IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N TO OVER LOUISIANA BETWEEN 89W-93W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO INLAND OVER S TEXAS AND MEXICO. A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 29N84W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN THROUGH SAT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE DEEP TROPICS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND THUS DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS AREA W OF 74W. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WINDING DOWN OVER CUBA AND ARE MOVING INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND WITHIN 30 NM ALONG THE S COAST BETWEEN 78W-82W. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND NICARAGUA BORDERS. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES EXPECTED ACROSS THE W AND E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE MID WEEK. HISPANIOLA... LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WITH A POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWER REMAIN OF THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ISLAND EARLIER THIS EVENING. THIS PATTERN OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA ACROSS THE W ATLC AND CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS IS AMPLIFYING THE UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD GIVING THE AREA WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE SE COAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 30N. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH JUST SE OF THE AZORES AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 32N32W 30N60W TO 29N80W. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY RETREAT EASTWARD THROUGH SUN ENABLING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SINK INTO THE W ATLC. THE FRONT WILL DRAG E ACROSS THE REMAINING NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH MON NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW