000 AXNT20 KNHC 102319 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA AND OVER A 1004 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 14N16W INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 07N19W TO 04N23W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 01S20W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 04S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN...MAINLY N OF 26N BETWEEN 86W-97W. S OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS FROM A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. OVER THE W GULF...SCATTEROMETER DATA AND LATEST OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N94W TO 19N95W. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING E OF THIS BOUNDARY N OF 24N BETWEEN 92W- 94W. SLIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF BASIN EXCEPT W OF 93W WHERE A LIGHTER EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AND DIFFUSE ACROSS THE N GULF WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING CONVECTION ACROSS CUBA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. TO THE E OF THIS FEATURE...UPPER-LEVEL SW FLOW PREVAILS RELATED TO A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER SOUTH AMERICA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PRODUCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA S OF 13N BETWEEN 73W-76W. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND CURRENTLY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY 2 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS...ONE LOCATED NEAR 31N66W AND THE SECOND ONE NEAR 35N27W. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT EMERGES OFF THE SE CONUS COAST INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA