000 AXNT20 KNHC 101742 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN A RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 31N67W AND A LOWER PRESSURE AREA ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA. AS A RESULT...NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 74W-77W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 02N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N21W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 23W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 19W-24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE GULF BASIN WITH AXIS FROM OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 18N95W TO 31N88W. TO THE WEST OF THE AXIS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES WITH VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHING NOTED OVER EASTERN TEXAS. THE MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INLAND SE TEXAS TO THE RIO GRANDE NEAR 28N100W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS AND BECOMES DIFFUSE BY LATE SATURDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS INFLUENCED BY UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER CENTRAL CUBA TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN NICARAGUA NEAR 11N87W. THE MAJORITY OF THIS FLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE ALOFT WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS HOWEVER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...HISPANIOLA...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE EVENING WHERE CLOUDINESS IS ENHANCED SLIGHTLY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITHIN MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ...HISPANIOLA... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND CURRENTLY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT. GIVEN INCREASED DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WITH FAIRLY BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE ATLC...THE BASIN IS LARGELY INFLUENCED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N67W AND A STRONGER 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N29W. THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT EMERGES OFF THE SE CONUS COAST INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS SATURDAY MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN