000 AXNT20 KNHC 080514 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED APR 08 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT TONIGHT AT 0600 UTC UNTIL 1200 UTC ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. THE GALE IS DUE TO A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 1006 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA AND THE HIGHER PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE W ATLC. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N11W TO 2N13W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N13W TO 3S30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6S35W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 12W-20W...FROM 5N-6S BETWEEN 20W-26W...AND FROM 1N-3S BETWEEN 30W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... 10-20 KT SE RETURN FLOW IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS 20-25 KT NE WINDS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA MOVING W. THE LATEST GOES-R IFR PROBABILITY IMAGERY SHOWS FOG AND LOW STRATUS CONDITIONS S OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 84W- 87W. PATCHY THICK FOG IS ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS AND NE MEXICO FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 93W-99W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 104W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF E OF 90W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MEXICO...AND OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SURFACE RETURN FLOW WITH MORE SHOWERS OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... A GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT SHORTLY ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. 10-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH WEAKEST WINDS JUST S OF CUBA. A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA FROM 20N-21N BETWEEN 76W-79W. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 73W-78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND W HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO TRAVERSE THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE TRADEWINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER OVER SW HISPANIOLA. EXPECT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE TRADEWINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE BAHAMAS EXTENDS FROM 29N68W TO 22N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH. THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 47W-51W. A 1011 MB LOW IS N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 35N16W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 34N10W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 28N13W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE TROUGH. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 60W. ZONAL FLOW IS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 25W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 37N16W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE SLOWLY W WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA