000 AXNT20 KNHC 071026 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE APR 07 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W DUE TO THE STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 1006 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA AND THE HIGHER PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE W ATLC. GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST MORE THAN 24 HOURS UNTIL 1200 UTC WED. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 6N10W TO 3N11W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N11W TO 4S30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6S35W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-3S BETWEEN 13W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... 10-15 KT SE RETURN FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA MOVING W. THE LATEST GOES-R IFR PROBABILITY IMAGERY SHOWS FOG AND LOW STRATUS CONDITIONS S OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 27N- 31N BETWEEN 84W-88W. PATCHY THICK FOG IS ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS AND NE MEXICO FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 94W-99W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 85W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 24N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SURFACE RETURN FLOW WITH MORE SHOWERS OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. 10-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH WEAKEST WINDS JUST S OF CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLAND...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND E HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 75W-78W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE...WHILE SW FLOW IS OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO TRAVERSE THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE TRADEWINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE TRADEWINDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH N OF PUERTO RICO EXTENDS FROM 27N65W TO 20N67W. THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 50W-60W. A 1008 MB LOW IS N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 35N17W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S TO 33N14W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 28N17W TO 26N23W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 60W. ZONAL FLOW IS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 25W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 35N18W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE SLOWLY W WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA