000 AXNT20 KNHC 070533 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE APR 07 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT TONIGHT AT 0600 UTC FOR SIX HOURS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE W ATLC. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE TO GALE FORCE AGAIN TUE NIGHT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 6N10W TO 3N10W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N10W TO 0N20W TO 2S32W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5S35W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-5S BETWEEN 12W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... 10-15 KT SE RETURN FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA MOVING W. THE GOES-R IFR PROBABILITY IMAGERY SHOWS FOG LOW STRATUS CONDITIONS S OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 84W-86W. MORE FOG IS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS AND NE MEXICO FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 95W-98W. A THIRD AREA OF FOG IS N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 89W-91W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 85W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 24N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SURFACE RETURN FLOW WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... A GALE IS FORECAST TO START SHORTLY AT O600 UTC TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. 10-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH WEAKEST WINDS JUST S OF CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLAND...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...W CUBA..AND W HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 73W-77W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE...WHILE SW FLOW IS OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO TRAVERSE THE CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE TRADEWINDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N60W TO 29N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N63W TO 20N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 60W-65W. A 1009 MB LOW IS N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 35N18W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S TO 33N15W TO 28N22W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 60W. ZONAL FLOW IS FROM20N-30N BETWEEN 25W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 36N19W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE SLOWLY W WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA