000
AXNT20 KNHC 061801
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
205 PM EDT MON APR 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          

A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF 
COLOMBIA TUE MORNING DUE TO STRENGTHENING OF THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ON THE SW CARIBBEAN. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO 
PULSE THROUGH WED MORNING. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 
                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC 
NEAR 08N13W SW TO 02N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 02N21W TO 
02S30W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 03S42W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND 
ITCZ E OF 27W AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF IT.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE 
AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF 
MEXICO...THUS PROVIDING RETURN WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS 
THE BASIN...INCREASING TO 20 KT W OF 96W ON THE NW GULF. THE 
TAIL OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN 
FLORIDA TO 29N83W TO 29N86W. LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH 
THIS FRONT...MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE EPAC WATERS ALOFT AND A 
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS SUPPORT ISOLATED 
SHOWERS IN THE NW GULF. FOG AND HAZE ARE ALSO BEING REPORTED IN 
THIS REGION...COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH FOG PROBABILITIES 
DEPICTED BY THE GOES-13 IFR. SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO 
CONTINUE THE NEXT THREE DAY AND MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WILL 
DOMINATE.
                              
CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                

MAINLY FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ACROSS THE REGION BEING SUPPORTED 
BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOIST AIR 
ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS. 
ANOTHER MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN 
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER 
ANTILLES. TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT 
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W S OF 17N WHERE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT 
SUPPORT TRADES OF 20 KT INCREASING UP TO 30 KT ALONG THE COAST 
OF COAST OF COLOMBIA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS 
REGION NEAR COLOMBIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES 
SECTION ABOVE.

HISPANIOLA...                                                   

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS IS STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE 
ISLAND...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS OVER DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATER THIS 
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. DRY AIR 
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WILL HINDER THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N64W TO 29N73W TO 
29N81W TO 29N86W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF THE BOUNDARY. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N58W TO 
23N63W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER BASIN AS WELL AS FAIR WEATHER. 
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THE NEXT THREE 
DAYS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR