000 AXNT20 KNHC 051756 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN APR 05 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC IS FORECAST TO GENERATE NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE CONDITIONS WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO 03N13W TO 02N20W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 22W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 08W-22W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NW OVER NEW MEXICO PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOCUSED ON A 1016 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N98W. A WARM FRONT STRETCHES EASTWARD TO 27N91W AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N82W. WHILE THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT IS CONTINUING TO BECOME DIFFUSE THIS AFTERNOON...THE WARM FRONT PORTION IS SHOWING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 89W-92W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHING IS FOUND ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE...A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 22N98W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITHIN GENTLE TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE BREEZE CONDITIONS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW FARTHER NORTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON MONDAY. MODERATE E-SE RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N60W SW TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N80W. MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT PREVAILS BASIN-WIDE RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE PERSIST AND ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ...HISPANIOLA... NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM BERMUDA NEAR 32N65W W-SW TO 29N79W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THE COLD FRONT NEAR 30N70W SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS INDICATED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF 22N59W THAT SUPPORTS TWO PIECES OF ENERGY BOTH IN THE FORM OF SURFACE TROUGHS. THE MAIN SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 19N60W TO 29N58W AND IS PROVIDING THE MOST FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN THE AREA FROM 19N-28N BETWEEN 55W-64W. THIS WEAK AREA OF ENERGY IS LIKELY TO MERGE WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N40W. WHILE PRIMARILY SAHARAN DUST REMAINS SUSPENDED ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA PROVIDING FAIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS...A DISSIPATED COLD FRONT REMAINS ANALYZED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM 32N20W TO 29N23W TO 26N42W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN