000 AXNT20 KNHC 051044 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN APR 05 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 12N16W TO 01S24W. THE ITCZ IS FROM 01S24W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 03S43W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 02S-03N BETWEEN 16W-24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E CONUS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN FROM 28N83W TO 26N91W. FROM THIS LAST POINT THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY EXTENDING TO 23N99W TO 32N108W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED ACROSS E US NEAR 36N83W EXTENDS S BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE EPAC EXTENDS ITS RIDGE TO THE N REACHING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE. A SLIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF 27N WHILE A SLIGHT E TO SE FLOW IS OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE S BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF ENHANCING CONVECTION. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE NE GULF THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS S REACHING THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 70W. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC ALONG 60W...PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE S CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN MAINLY W OF 70W. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN WHILE A SLIGHT EASTERLY FLOW IS DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA N OF 17N AND W OF 75W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE ATLANTIC UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE E AWAY FROM THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER. HISPANIOLA... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES CONTINUES TO GENERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM 31N70W TO 28N80W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE SE...AN UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH IS DEVELOPING NEAR 28N60W AND IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE AS A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 23N58W TO 20N59W. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-29N BETWEEN 55W-61W. A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION RELATED TO IT. IT BEGINS AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 25N58W TO 26N48W THEN BECOMES A COLD FRONT FROM THAT LAST POINT THROUGH 31N23W. A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N42W EXTENDS S AND E SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN WEAKENING AND BECOME DIFFUSE. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE DOMINATING THE E ATLANTIC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA