000
AXNT20 KNHC 041806
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
205 PM EDT SAT APR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 
                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 06N11W SW TO 01S20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THIS 
POINT TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 35W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL 
NEAR 02S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS 
ARE FROM 02S TO 09N E OF 22W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ W OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. ANCHORED 
BY A 1032 MB HIGH OVER NE OKLAHOMA AND OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO 
ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 27N87W. BETWEEN THE TWO HIGH 
PRESSURE CENTERS...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE CONUS TO 
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W SW TO 27N91W TO SOUTHERN TEXAS 
NEAR 25N97W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING PREVAILS AND DRY AIR 
SUBSIDE IN THE REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THUS SUPPORTING 
FAIR WEATHER. BEHIND THE FRONT...SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF MOISTURE...WHICH IS ENHANCING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND ADJACENT WATERS AS 
WELL AS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SEA FOG IS ALSO BEING REPORTED 
OVER THE NW BASIN N OF THE FRONT W OF 92W. EASTERLY FLOW OF 10 
TO 15 KT IS S OF 25N WHILE LIGHTER VARIABLE WIND IS AHEAD OF THE 
FRONT IN THE NE GULF. NORTHERLY WIND OF 15 TO 25 KT IS OVER THE 
NW GULF W OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL AND START 
DISSIPATING BY SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE 
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
                              
CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO 
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WHICH ALONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FAVOR 
FAIR WEATHER. ON THE EASTERN BASIN...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED TO 
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. 
TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN...INCREASING TO 20 TO 
25 KT S OF 16N BETWEEN 67W AND 77W...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA. SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN BASIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 
SUNDAY NIGHT.
 
HISPANIOLA...

DRY AIR DOMINATES ACROSS THE ISLAND IN THE UPPER LEVELS FAVORING 
STABILITY AND FAIR WEATHER. HOWEVER...SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORTS 
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 33N47W 
COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN...MAINLY SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT CUT THE RIDGE 
ALONG 30N33W SW TO 25N50W TO 22N59W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A 
STATIONARY FRONT TO 22N67W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ALONG WITH LOW 
LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NEAR THE 
FRONT TAIL FROM 19N TO 26N BETWEEN 55W AND 68W. THE COLD FRONT 
OVER THE GULF WILL ENTER THE SW N ATLC TONIGHT.
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR