000 AXNT20 KNHC 040519 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT APR 04 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 03S27W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THIS POINT TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 05S37W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-07N AND E OF 20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N54W EXTENDS ITS RIDGE AXIS W ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING SE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS APPROACHING THE NW GULF WATERS ENHANCING CONVECTION. SLIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. FOG IS ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NW GULF MAINLY N OF 27N AND W OF 92W. THIS FOG WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE W/CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW REACHING THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. DESPITE THIS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE GENTLE TRADES GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA N OF COLOMBIA S OF 14N BETWEEN 72W-77W. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE ISLAND AS RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER THE ISLAND. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N54W. TO THE E OF THIS FEATURE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N37W TO 24N53W. THE FRONT IS THEN WEAKENING WHILE EXTENDING THROUGH 23N68W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 54W-67W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOCATED FROM 30N38W TO 27N41W. A LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS CONTINUES OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 05N-28N AND E OF 50W. A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 29N35W AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE W ATLANTIC ENHANCING CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA