000
AXNT20 KNHC 032302
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
805 PM EDT FRI APR 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 
                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 6N10W TO 1N20W TO 1S32W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 
1S32W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4S38W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6S BETWEEN 13W-21W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-4S BETWEEN 37W-42W.   
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N60W WITH  
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING TO E TEXAS. 10-15 KT SE FLOW IS OVER 
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GOES-R IFR PROBABILITY IMAGERY SHOWS IFR 
CONDITIONS OVER THE W GULF W OF 93W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER 
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL 
TEXAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE 
GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 93W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER MOST OF THE 
GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER TEXAS AND MEXICO W OF 100W.  
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE TO S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. 
                              
CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WIND 
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS OVER THE YUCATAN 
CHANNEL. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...E CUBA...AND 
JAMAICA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND 
OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER 
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF PANAMA NEAR 10N80W. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA.  
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO ADVECT 
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  
 
HISPANIOLA...
        
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE ISLAND AS RESIDUAL LOW 
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER THE ISLAND. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD 
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N60W. A 
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N42W TO 27N50W. A 
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO 24N60W TO 23N70W. A 
PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N41W TO 25N47W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND TROUGH. A 
1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N33W. A 
LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS IS OVER 
THE E ATLANTIC FROM 5N-28N E OF 50W. OF INTEREST OVER THE THE 
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 
20N BETWEEN 40W-80W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT. A SMALL UPPER 
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N18W. 
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT TO 
EXTEND FROM 31N32W TO 26N50W TO 23N60W WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT 
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE W ATLANTIC 32N76W TO 
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. 
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
 
FORMOSA