000
AXNT20 KNHC 031745
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
205 PM EDT FRI APR 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W TO 
THE EQUATOR NEAR 18W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 25W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N BETWEEN 
13W-20W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                       
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY WITHIN A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE GULF 
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURE ALOFT OTHER THAN 
WEAK RIDGING...SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA W-SW TO EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO. 
GENTLE TO MODERATE S-SE WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITH SKIES REMAINING 
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOOKING AHEAD...THE RIDGE WILL HOLD UNTIL LATE 
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WHEN THE NEXT FRONT IS 
FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST. A BRIEF 
WINDOW OF FRESH N-NE WINDS ACROSS THE NW GULF WILL FOLLOW IN 
WAKE OF THE FRONT AS IT QUICKLY WEAKENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF 
INTO SUNDAY.
                              
CARIBBEAN SEA...                                             
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN 
BASIN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRETCHED UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER VENEZUELA NEAR 06N66W. WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT... 
HOWEVER AT THE SURFACE...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM 
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO WEST OF 
JAMAICA. WIDELY SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NORTH 
OF 16N BETWEEN 58W-83W. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES 
PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY OFF THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN TO 
THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION.
 
...HISPANIOLA...                                            
WHILE DRY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS...LOW-LEVEL 
MOISTURE WITHIN TRADE WIND FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE 
REGION RESULTING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR HISPANIOLA AND THE 
ADJACENT CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 
THIS SWATH OF MOISTURE STRETCHES FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS 
WESTWARD TO WEST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N80W. OTHERWISE...HIGH 
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITSELF ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC 
REGION AND PROVIDE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION 
AREA NEAR 32N48W SW TO A BASE NEAR 27N73W. THIS TROUGHING 
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N43W SW TO 26N54W WHERE IT 
BEGINS TRANSITION INTO A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WESTWARD TO 
25N65W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 30N WITHIN 
120 NM EAST OF THE FRONT...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 30N. 
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED 
NE OF BERMUDA NEAR 34N60W. FINALLY...THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER 
THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB 
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N32W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN