000 AXNT20 KNHC 021751 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED APR 02 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N09W TO 02N14W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 02N BETWEEN 21W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITHIN A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURE ALOFT...SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA SW TO EAST- CENTRAL MEXICO. MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH SE WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR. LOOKING AHEAD...THE RIDGE WILL HOLD UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WHEN THE NEXT FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST. A BRIEF WINDOW OF FRESH N-NE WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN WAKE OF THE FRONT AS IT QUICKLY WEAKENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF INTO SUNDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EAST-WEST STRETCHED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N73W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT...HOWEVER AT THE SURFACE...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. WIDELY SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF A LINE FROM MARTINIQUE TO JAMAICA TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND THE APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SATURDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION. ...HISPANIOLA... WHILE DRY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN TRADE WIND FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SWATH OF MOISTURE STRETCHES FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS W-NW TO HISPANIOLA THEN WESTWARD TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. AS A FRONTAL TROUGH TO THE NE OF THE ISLAND CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION AND INCREASE E-NE WINDS ON ATLC EXPOSURES LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N59W. THE FRONT CONTINUES SW TO 28N70W TO 28N74W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR JACKSONVILLE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ANALYZED SE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 31N58W TO 27N60W TO 24N64W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY... AND LIKELY ENHANCED DUE TO MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES EASTWARD. OTHERWISE...THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N33W. TO THE WEST OF THE HIGH...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 34N42W TO 28N50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FINALLY...VERY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH DUE TO SAHARAN DUST COVERING A MAJORING OF THE ATLC S OF 30N E OF 45W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN