000
AXNT20 KNHC 021015
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
805 AM EDT WED APR 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1000 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 
                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 06N10W TO 01S19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES THROUGH 03S30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 
04S38W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05S TO 03N 
BETWEEN 10W AND 33W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED OFFSHORE OF 
WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 27N84W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING TO THE 
TEXAS COAST. SE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE 
GULF. LIGHTER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT IS OCCURRING 
WITHIN 150 NM OF THE HIGH CENTER. THE RIDGING SUPPORTS GENERALLY 
FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN THIS MORNING. RIDGING IS FORECAST 
TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH FAIR 
WEATHER EXPECTED. 
                              
CARIBBEAN SEA...

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE 
BASIN EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE THEY ARE FRESH TO 
STRONG. DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS AND SUBSIDENCE IS 
INHIBITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN THIS MORNING. 
PATCHES OF SHALLOW SHOWERS IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ARE OCCURRING 
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 15N AND 20N...INCLUDING JAMAICA AND 
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS THE TRADE WINDS ARE 
FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS 
BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER S AMERICA. 
OTHERWISE...SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BASIN 
THROUGH FRIDAY. 
 
HISPANIOLA...
        
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE ISLAND AS A DISSIPATING 
STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NW OF HAITI IN THE WINDWARD 
PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TODAY...LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE IN TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED 
SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH FRIDAY. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N64W TO 
29N80W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS 
OVER NE FLORIDA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 70 NM S OF 
THE COLD FRONT. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 
32N43W TO 25N60W TO NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 70 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF 
THIS FRONT. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM 26N43W TO 20N44W. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE TROUGH. 
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN 
ATLC WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER FROM 05N TO 32N. THE COLD FRONT 
WILL MOVE EAST TO NEAR 30N60W BY FRIDAY WITH CONVECTION. THE 
STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE DURING THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
 
LATTO