000 AXNT20 KNHC 010559 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO 01S23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO THE S AMERICA COAST NEAR 05S37W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04S TO 04N BETWEEN 10W AND 22W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04S TO 05N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 10W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE GULF BASIN WITH CIRRUS STREAMING W TO E OVER THE GULF IN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AT THE SURFACE...A WESTERN EXTENSION OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF AS A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 27N84W. THIS IS PROVIDING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE GULF PRIMARILY BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KT...WITH LIGHTER FLOW NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HIGH. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND THE SURFACE HIGH IS SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN TONIGHT. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGING IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND OVER THE GULF A SHORT DISTANCE TO 22N90W. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH. THE FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE GULF THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BEYOND THAT TIME...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT THEN EXTENDS SW TO HISPANIOLA. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE FORM THE FRONT EXTEND INTO A SMALL PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 73W AND 79W...INCLUDING JAMAICA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. OTHER PATCHES OF SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW ARE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN BETWEEN 14N AND 18N. TRADE WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT DOMINATE MOST OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF WINDS NEAR 25 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BASIN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ...HISPANIOLA... A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...EXTENDING FROM 26N50W TO 18N73W. THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GRADUALLY DISSIPATES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N42W TO 26N50W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 22N65W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 26N66W IS ENHANCING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 55W AND 62W. SURFACE RIDGING SURROUNDS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH A 1021 HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N60W...AND ANOTHER 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N49W. THE WESTERNMOST HIGH IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N19W TO 7N28W. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH. OVER THE NEXT 24 CONVECTION OVER THE SE US ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE THE MID ATLC MAY ENTER THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION OFF THE N FL COAST. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION WILL DISSIPATE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO