000 AXNT20 KNHC 290602 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 05N10W SW TO 01S17W TO 04S27W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 04S27W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 06W AND 18W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 07S TO THE EQUATOR W OF 18W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDS SW TO A BASE OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN GENERATE A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN...ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SW N ATLC...THUS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THESE REGIONS AND THE SE GULF OF MEXICO E OF A LINE FROM 26N82W TO 21N87W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE GULF WHERE IS ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 25N90W. WIND FLOW FROM THE N-NE OF 15 KT IS S OF 24N E OF 90W...INCREASING TO 20 KT OVER THE SE BASIN E OF A LINE FROM 26N82W TO 21N87W. WIND FLOW FROM THE S-SE OF 15 KT IS ON THE WESTERN GULF W OF 92W. LIGHTER VARIABLE WIND FLOW DOMINATES OVER THE REMAINDER BASIN. SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NW ATLC WATERS EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TO 20N77W SW TO 17N82W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE FRONT AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF THE FRONT N OF 19N. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS OVER NW COLOMBIA THAT ENHANCES SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 15N. WATER VAPOR AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR DOMINATING ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN...WHICH IS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE ON THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FRONT SUPPORT NW FLOW UP TO 20 KT W OF 79W. SIMILARLY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A BROAD RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA SUPPORT TRADES OF 20 KT S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 77W. LIGHTER VARIABLE WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER BASIN. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER HISPANIOLA SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE IT WILL START TO DISSIPATE SW TO HONDURAS...SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. HISPANIOLA... SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER EASTERN CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN IS OVER HAITI...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXTENDING TO ADJACENT WATERS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THAT DAY BUT LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NW ATLC WATERS EXTENDS ALONG 31N64W SW TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 21N73W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO EASTERN CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BETWEEN A TROUGH WITH BASE OVER SW GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF THE FRONT...INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N40W SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 31N35W SW TO 23N41W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 175 NM W OF THE BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS BEING DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR