000 AXNT20 KNHC 282337 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 06N10W TO 04S21W TO 04S33W. THE ITCZ IS COMPLETELY S OF THE EQUATOR EXTENDING FROM 04S33W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 02S-06S MAINLY W OF 20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE BASIN FROM THE W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE COAST OF E MEXICO WHILE ANOTHER 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF LOUISIANA NEAR 30N88W. SLIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN AS A COLD FRONT FROM 22N80W TO 19N86W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY THROUGH 16N86W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE BOUNDARIES. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUES QUITE ACTIVE ACROSS THE BASIN FROM 21N78W TO 18N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS N OF 19N BETWEEN 75W-81W AFFECTING E CUBA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND THE ADJACENT CARIBBEAN WATERS BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE PREVAILS SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE AND HENCE FAIR WEATHER. GENTLE TRADES ARE OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 14N BETWEEN 73W- 78W WHERE A GENTLE TO MODERATE FLOW CONTINUES. OVER THE NEXT 24- 48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE E WHILE LOSING ENERGY AND BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TRADES WILL PERSIST N OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA INCREASING TO FRESH/STRONG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE MOISTURE INCREASES AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IN 12-24 HOURS. THESE BOUNDARIES WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION PRIMARILY ACROSS HAITI BY SUNDAY...THEN COVERING THE WHOLE ISLAND BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N69W TO 22N78W. ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THIS FRONT. TO THE E...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N67W TO 22N77W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. A PAIR OF SURFACE HIGHS EXTEND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...A WEAK 1021 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 33N40W ENHANCING CONVECTION N OF 27N BETWEEN 36W-42W. A STATIONARY FRONT ASSOCIATED TO THIS LOW EXTENDS FROM 31N36W TO 23N44W. LOOKING AHEAD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WITH FAIR WEATHER. THE E/CENTRAL ATLANTIC STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA