000 AXNT20 KNHC 261719 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT IS EMERGING OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS AND WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT. NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE BY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF WATERS S OF 21N W OF 95W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 16W AND CONTINUES TO 03S27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO THE S AMERICA COAST NEAR 04S38W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06S- 06N BETWEEN 08W-16W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO/TEXAS IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AS OF 1500 UTC HAS ENTERED THE GULF JUST OFF THE TEXAS COAST FROM 30N94W TO 27N97W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH AS OF 1500 UTC EXTENDS FROM THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29N91W TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N97W. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N TO THE N GULF COAST ANYWHERE FROM THE TEXAS COAST ALONG 97W TO THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA ALONG 84W. GUSTY VARIABLE WINDS OF UP TO 35 KT ARE OCCURRING AROUND THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE NW OF THE COLD FRONT. AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION...S TO SE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF. GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY MORNING. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN LATE TONIGHT AND EASTERN BASIN ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH DIFFLUENCE AND DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS PREVENTING ANY DEEP CONVECTION. TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT PREVAIL OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH WINDS LOCALLY UP TO 25 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA AND HONDURAS...AND WEAKER WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA. FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE BASIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM JAMAICA TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. CONVECTION WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ON FRIDAY NIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO PROMOTE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NW MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE ISLAND ON SUNDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 35N63W IS PRODUCING SE FLOW OF 15 TO 20KT W OF 70W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WELL IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 23N AND W OF 75W TO THE FL PENINSULA...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AND NW BAHAMAS. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N43W AND EXTENDS SW TO 26N50W TO 23N61W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 24N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES SUPPORTS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER OVER THE ATLC S OF 32N AND E OF 40W. WINDS AND CONVECTION WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OFF THE E COAST OF FL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WATERS BY FRIDAY EVENING...ADVANCING TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO BERMUDA SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO