000 AXNT20 KNHC 260541 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS THURSDAY MORNING AND PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE BY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF WATERS S OF 21N W OF 95W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 13W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN 04W-17W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE EAST OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE BASIN THIS EVENING IN SUPPORT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF WATERS W OF A LINE FROM 29N90W TO 19N96W. A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 82W- 86W. LOOKING AHEAD...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND TROUGHING MOVING EAST...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF THURSDAY MORNING...USHERING IN FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF BY LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE BASIN BY SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 09N77W IS INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN DRY AIR AND OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY HOWEVER SHOWS A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS CUBA AND HISPANIOLA...AND ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 71W. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE AS AN OVERALL WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LENDING TO GENTLE TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE TRADES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC LATE IN THE WEEK. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING... HOWEVER SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO PROMOTE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED BETWEEN N OF 28N BETWEEN 45W-60W OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N46W SW TO 24N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 60W- 70W. TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT...SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...HOWEVER A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA FROM 30N80W TO 27N78W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 75W-80W. FARTHER EAST...THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED SE OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N22W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO 20N55W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN