000 AXNT20 KNHC 251045 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO 02N16W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-08N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 03W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 02N BETWEEN 16W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MUCH OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATELY DRY AND STABLE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS MORNING. A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM A 1017 MB LOW CENTERED OFF OF THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 31N81W TO A 1017 MB LOW CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF PALM BEACH FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W TO A LARGER SCALE SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 25N88W ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TO 18N91W. WHILE STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT ARE LACKING...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE GULF S OF 27N E OF 87W. ELSEWHERE...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING INFLUENCES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN GEORGIA TO A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 22N99W. GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC BREEZE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AS THIS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N79W IS INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN DRY AIR AND OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY HOWEVER SHOWS A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS SW OF HISPANIOLA... AND ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES E OF 66W. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE AS SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N81W. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE GENTLE TO MODERATE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC LATE IN THE WEEK. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING... HOWEVER SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO PROMOTE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NOTED BETWEEN N OF 25N BETWEEN 48W-57W. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N54W SW TO 27N66W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 27N BETWEEN 44W-57W...AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT W OF 57W. WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LACKING ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A WEAKENING TREND AND BECOME DIFFUSE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...HOWEVER A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS FROM 35N76W INTO A 1017 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N81W. THE LOW AND TROUGHING IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SHALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 27N W OF 76W. FARTHER EAST...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N25W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO 20N60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN