000 AXNT20 KNHC 250549 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N09W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 16W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 06W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 02N BETWEEN 16W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MUCH OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATELY DRY AND STABLE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS EVENING. AS OF 25/0300 UTC...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS WESTWARD TO THE WESTERN COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N84W. LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY S OF 25N E OF 86W. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY OTHER NOTEWORTHY BOUNDARY IS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 23N88W ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TO 17N91W THAT IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ELSEWHERE...GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC BREEZE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO WEDNESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N79W IS INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN DRY AIR AND OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY HOWEVER SHOWS A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE AS SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N80W. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE GENTLE TO MODERATE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC LATE IN THE WEEK. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING... HOWEVER SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO PROMOTE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NOTED BETWEEN N OF 25N BETWEEN 50W-60W. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N55W SW TO 28N60W TO 26N72W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE COAST OF WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 27N BETWEEN 46W-58W...AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT W OF 58W. WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LACKING ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A WEAKENING TREND AND BECOME DIFFUSE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...HOWEVER A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS FROM 35N74W TO 31N80W TO 28N79W AND IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SHALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 28N W OF 77W. FARTHER EAST...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N25W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO 25N50W TO 22N70W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN