000 AXNT20 KNHC 242349 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE MAR 24 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 15W...TO 1S19W. THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 1S19W TO 3S30W AND TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4S BETWEEN 17W AND 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 1S TO 3S BETWEEN 7W AND 9W...AND FROM 1N TO 5S BETWEEN 24W AND 35W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 44W AND 49W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM SIERRA LEONE TO 5N41W AND 5N58W IN EASTERN GUYANA. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO BECOMES WESTERLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW AND COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N NORTHWARD. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE COAST OF MEXICO ALONG 22N/23N. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CUTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...ALONG 25N/26N AT 81W...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA ALONG 81W...ALONG THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W COVERING THE BAHAMAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...TO NORTHERN COASTAL CUBA. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...PASSING THROUGH 32N58W TO 28N65W TO 26N74W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE AND HAZE ARE BEING REPORTED AT KXIH. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KGHB...KGRY... KIKT...KVOA...AND KMIS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE AREAS THAT ARE TO THE EAST AND TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN IN LOUISIANA...IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...IN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FROM PERRY WESTWARD...AND AT THE ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA AIRPORT. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 14N FROM 74W EASTWARD...AND FROM 17N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 74W AND 82W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 17N NORTHWARD FROM JAMAICA EASTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ALSO IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO THE MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 20N75W TO 14N70W BEYOND 14N60W. THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PART OF A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 25N34W 17N45W 12N57W. A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 21N81W TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N37W TO 28N44W TO 23N61W...TO THE 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR CUBA. A RIDGE CONTINUES FROM THE 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO CENTRAL HONDURAS. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...THAT IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE MONSOON TROUGH DOES NOT EXIST IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...THAT IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS HISPANIOLA. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...SCATTERED CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TOWARD JAMAICA AND CUBA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST-TO- WEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF AN EAST-TO- WEST ORIENTED CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL ENCOMPASS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO 26N70W. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 28N65W TO 26N74W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N74W TO SOUTH FLORIDA...ALONG 25N/26N AT 81W...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 48W AND 58W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N54W 26N63W 24N75W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N37W TO 28N44W TO 23N61W...TO A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N81W...TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 27N28W...TO 25N34W 17N45W AND 12N57W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT