000
AXNT20 KNHC 241651 RRA
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
205 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N09W TO 
01S20W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO THE S AMERICA COAST NEAR 
04S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 
FROM 03S-03N BETWEEN 01W-33W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...  

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD 
FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTHERN ATLC TO THE 
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...SOUTH FL...AND OVER THE GULF NEAR 26N82W TO 
22N90W TO 20N94W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM OF 
THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN 
GULF FROM 23N84W AND ACROSS THE FL STRAITS. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. 
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF 
EXTENDING FROM 29N89W TO 26N84W. LIMITED MOISTURE IS INHIBITING 
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH. A 1018 MB HIGH 
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 26N92W SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER 
AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF 
THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL 
DISSIPATE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE NE GULF. SHOWERS WILL 
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SE GULF IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.                 
         
CARIBBEAN SEA...  

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS SUPPORTING 
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT THAT INHIBITS DEEP CONVECTION 
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED 
NEAR 21N82W IS PRODUCING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT 
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...WITH LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BETWEEN 
JAMAICA AND CUBA...INCLUDING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. EASTERLY TRADE 
WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 20 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM NEAR THE COAST 
OF HONDURAS TO JAMAICA...AND EASTWARD TO PUERTO RICO AND MUCH OF 
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE 
BASIN. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 
THURSDAY. 
 
...HISPANIOLA...                                                
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW 
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER 
DOMINATES THE AREA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST 
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...     

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC ALONG 67W SUPPORTS A 
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N63W TO 
27N77W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND S FL NEAR 26N81W. A PRE-FRONTAL 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF...ACROSS THE FL STRAITS 
AND OVER THE ATLC FROM 24N80W TO 27N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 50 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT S OF 29N. 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BY THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 59W-63W. SURFACE 
RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES EXTENDS AN 
AXIS SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...SUPPORTING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW 
AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC E OF 55W. OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE E TO THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC. THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO 
DISSIPATE. 
                                          
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO