000 AXNT20 KNHC 240541 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N08W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 12W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 01W-20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MUCH OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING ONLY A VERY NARROW STREAM OF MOISTURE COINCIDING WITH A WEAK MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N78W SW TO 22N89W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N82W TO 22N90W TO THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N95W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA STRAITS...AND ACROSS THE SW GULF WATERS S OF 21N W OF 92W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS SW LOUISIANA. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH S-SW TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 21N98W WITH PRIMARILY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW-LEVEL STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF N OF 26N BETWEEN 86W-93W. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC BY LATE TUESDAY WITH GENTLE TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC BREEZE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N80W IS INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN DRY AIR AND OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY HOWEVER SHOWS A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF JAMAICA...ACROSS EASTERN CUBA...AND ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE AS SURFACING RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N83W. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE GENTLE TO MODERATE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC LATE IN THE WEEK. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING... HOWEVER SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO PROMOTE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS OFFSHORE OF THE SE U.S. COAST THAT SUPPORTS AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N69W W-SW TO A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N82W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERNMOST LOW TO THE FLORIDA COAST AND THEN BECOMES A WARM FRONT TO THE WESTERNMOST LOW. A PRE- FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT FROM 31N67W TO 26N80W. WHILE THE COLD FRONT ITSELF EXHIBITS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...A LARGE PORTION OF THE PREVAILING PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COVERS THE AREA N OF 25N W OF 63W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 20N TO A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N83W. FARTHER EAST...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WESTERN AZORES NEAR 39N31W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN