000 AXNT20 KNHC 240006 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W SW TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 17W WHERE THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS CONTINUES TO 02S24W 03S33W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 03S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03S TO 03N BETWEEN 07W AND 21W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 06S TO 02N W OF 27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO A BASE N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUPPORTS A 1011 MB LOW NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 27N82W 24N86W 21N92W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N95W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER THE SW AND SE GULF SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 23N TO 26N E OF 85W AND ON THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N W OF 92W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE TAIL OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ENHANCES THE CONVECTION IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. EXTENDS S-SW TO THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W...THUS PROVIDING NORTHERLY WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT OVER THE EASTERN BASIN...INCREASING UP TO 15 KT W OF 90W. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SE TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TUE MORNING EXTENDING THE COLD FRONT FROM THE STRAITS...ALONG THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA DURING THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THERE ARE NO FEATURES OF INTEREST IN THE CARIBBEAN. FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES TO PREVAIL BEING SUPPORTED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING WITH THE TRADES OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING PASSING SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. TRADES OF 10 KT DOMINATES ON THE EASTERN...CENTRAL AND SW BASIN...INCREASING TO 15 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...A 1016 MB HIGH PROVIDES VARIABLE WINDS OF 5 KT. THE HIGH OVER THE NW BASIN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH TUE MORNING WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ENHANCING SHOWERS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND ADJACENT WATERS. ...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS THE ISLAND BEING ENHANCED BY SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO A BASE N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUPPORTS A 1011 MB LOW NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA FROM WHICH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E-NE ALONG 29N78W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 31N71W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N68W TO 27N76W...ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO THE SE GULF NEAR 24N83W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 26N W OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT STARTS TO DISSIPATE ALONG 30N57W TO 27N62W TO 24N65W. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL DRIFT SE TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS EXTENDING A COLD FRONT SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND A STATIONARY FRONT E TRANSITIONING TO A COLD FRONT TO 68W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR