000 AXNT20 KNHC 231737 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1730 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 05N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N16W TO 02S30W TO A 1012 MB LOW N OF THE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 02S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 06S-02N. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 26N96W. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE NW GULF. A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER NORTH FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W...WITH ITS COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE BASIN FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE SW TO 25N89W TO 21N96W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N84W TO 19N92W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 25N AND E OF 87W AFFECTING THE E GULF WATERS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. NORTHERLY SLIGHT TO GENTLE FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TROUGH. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONT AND TROUGH TO CONTINUE MOVING SE ACROSS THE BASIN WITH CONVECTION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING FROM THE W ACROSS THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE AND HENCE FAIR WEATHER. A STATIONARY 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED S OF CUBA NEAR 20N83W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE SLIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES DEVELOPING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE BASIN. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS S OF 14N BETWEEN 73W-77W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME TO PERSIST. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. IT ALL BEGINS WITH A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N76W. ITS COLD FRONT EXTENDS W FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 31N79W...THEN BECOMES STATIONARY REACHING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 30N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF 30N BETWEEN 62W-80W. TO THE E...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 25N68W TO 32N57W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE FRONT...EXTENDING FROM 25N54W TO 34N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS N OF 28N BETWEEN 46W-49W. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. WITH THIS...GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS E OF 54W WHILE A WEAKER AND VARIABLE FLOW IS DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND MOVE E ENHANCING CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA