000
AXNT20 KNHC 231049
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
805 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                      
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 
02N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
02N20W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 12W-16W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N 
BETWEEN 22W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER THE 
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY NEAR 36N84W SW TO THE BASE OF THE MID-
LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 26N96W. THIS TROUGHING 
SUPPORTS A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED ACROSS SW GEORGIA NEAR 31N84W 
AND A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS 
NEAR 30N86W TO 27N90W...THEN INTO THE SW GULF TO THE EAST-
CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 21N97W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS 
ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NE GULF N OF 25N E OF THE 
COLD FRONT...AND FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 93W-97W. THE WARM FRONT 
FEATURE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA REMAINS ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS 
OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND NE FLORIDA. WHILE THE COLD FRONT 
REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK DUE TO AN OVERALL WEAKER DYNAMIC 
ENVIRONMENT...GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL WEST OF 
THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH LATE MONDAY... 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE 
WESTERN GULF.
                               
CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                 
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN ON THE 
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 13N85W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
INDICATES THIS FLOW REMAINS VERY DRY AND STABLE ALOFT PROMOTING 
FAIR SKIES AND CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE THIS MORNING. THE ONLY 
AREAS OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS IN THE VICINITY OF 
SW JAMAICA NEAR 18N78W AND SOME ACTIVITY ACROSS HISPANIOLA. 
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY 
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES 
WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
 
...HISPANIOLA...                                                
A FEW LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND 
THIS MORNING...HOWEVER OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS AND SKIES ARE 
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ON MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND DRY 
CONDITIONS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                             
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE SW 
NORTH ATLC REGION...HOWEVER AN AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE FOCUSED ON 
A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N79W IS PROVIDING THE AREA N OF 
28N W OF 65W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE 
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE SE CONUS. THE AREA OF 
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP THROUGH TUESDAY 
ALONG 31N/32N WHILE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH 
ATLC BY LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT 
WILL DRAPE SW FROM THE LOW MOSTLY RETAINING INFLUENCE ACROSS THE 
WATERS N OF 25N. OTHERWISE...A WEAK RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE 
CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 20N PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE 
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC. TO THE EAST...A COMPLEX MIDDLE 
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 33N49W TO A BASE NEAR 
12N61W IN SUPPORT OF A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N57W AND TERMINATING NEAR 26N68W. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
FRONT...AND TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 26N BETWEEN 47W-52W. 
FINALLY...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED 
WEST OF THE AZORES NEAR 39N33W. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE 
RIDGING IS THE EXTENSION OF A SURFACE TROUGH STEMMING FROM A 
1006 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 35N10W. THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM THE LOW CENTER S-SW TO THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N14W. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY N OF 27N E OF 
16W...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MOROCCO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
HUFFMAN