000 AXNT20 KNHC 222336 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N11W ALONG 3N16W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR TO NEAR 40W THEN ALONG 1N43W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 47W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 3N11W TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA NEAR 5N9W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 12W-14W AND FROM 3N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 17W-26W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR 33W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THEN NE INTO THE W ATLC GIVING THE GULF SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. A UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER NE ARKANSAS TO THE N GULF COAST AND IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF FROM A 1012 MB LOW OVER S MISSISSIPPI ACROSS E LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN ALONG 27N93W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO JUST N OF TAMPICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE ALABAMA LINE WHERE A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO THE SAME 1012 MB LOW. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF GENERATING MOSTLY CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS RETREATING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FRONT WILL REACH FROM COASTAL MISSISSIPPI TO COATZACOALCOS MEXICO TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE E OF GULF MON NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THEN NE OVER THE W ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN BASIN E OF 83W. AFTERNOON SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA AND PORTIONS OF CUBA. THIS IS LEAVING THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH TUE. MODERATE TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH TUE. HISPANIOLA... AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE OVER W DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND MOST OF HAITI LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND WITH CLEAR SKIES. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE GENERATING ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS S FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N77W. AT THE SURFACE IS A WEAK 1014 MB LOW NEAR 30N77W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR JACKSONVILLE. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE FRONT IS BEGINNING TO DRIFT S AS THE THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 30N75W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N57W AND EXTENDS ALONG 28N60W TO 25N65W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE COLD FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH JUST W OF THE AZORES. W ATLC STATIONARY/COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT E ACROSS THE W ATLC THROUGH MON NIGHT AND WILL REACH FROM 32N63W ALONG 29N65W TO 28N74W TO CAPE CANAVERAL TUE NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TUE SHIFTING E WITH THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW