000 AXNT20 KNHC 221723 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO 00N21W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 00N21W TO 03S34W TO 01N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02S-05N BETWEEN 01W-20W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07S-03N BETWEEN 23W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST AND OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 30N92W AND ALONG 27N94W TO THE EXTREME NE MEXICO COAST JUST S OF 26N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT. A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM INLAND LOUISIANA TO JUST OFFSHORE MOBILE NEAR 30N88W AND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH OF 1018 MB IS LOCATED OVER THE E GULF NEAR 27N85W. ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT IS OCCURRING AROUND THE HIGH AND SE OF THE COLD FRONT. NW SURFACE WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KT ARE NW OF THE COLD FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E TO SPAN N TO S ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL THEN DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES OVER THE E GULF MONDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. TRADE WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 10 TO 20 KT DOMINATE THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF 25 KT WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. OTHER THAN PATCHES OF WEAK SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFFECTING JAMAICA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY ...HISPANIOLA... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS...FAIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS N FLORIDA AND OVER THE W ATLC TO 31N80W. AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1016 MB SURFACE LOW HAS BEEN ANALYZED NEAR 31N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 76W AND THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST. A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS OVER THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N59W TO 27N65W. A PRE- FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 30N56W TO 26N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 51W-62W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AROUND A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED JUST W OF THE AZORES DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC BASIN S OF 32N AND E OF 50W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EAST WITH A STATIONARY FRONT FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE LOW TO THE N FL COAST WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO