000
AXNT20 KNHC 220508
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
205 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                      
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 6N10W TO 
0N23W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 0N23W TO 3S30W TO THE COAST OF 
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG  
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 20W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
AS OF 0300 UTC...A 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR HOUSTON TEXAS AT 
30N94W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW OVER THE NW GULF OF 
MEXICO TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT 27N97W. A QUASI-STATIONARY 
FRONT ALSO EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO S GEORGIA AT 31N84W. GOES-R 
PROVING GROUND LOW STRATUS/FOG IFR ANIMATION SHOWS AN AREA OF 
PATCHY FOG ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST N OF 28N E OF 87W. MORE 
PATCHY FOG  AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W GULF W OF 93W 
TO INCLUDE THE TEXAS AND MEXICAN COASTS. A 1018 MB HIGH IS 
CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N85W. 5-10 KT 
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 
86W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE GULF...AND THE NORTH GULF 
STATES E OF TEXAS. EXPECT IN 24 HOUR FOR THE LOW TO BE CENTERED 
OVER S ALABAMA NEAR 32N88W. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTENDS S FROM THE 
LOW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 20N94W WITH SHOWERS. 
                   
CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                 
10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST 
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE 
E CARIBBEAN. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS S OF PUERTO 
RICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF 
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. NW FLOW IS 
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE 
CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

...HISPANIOLA...                                                
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS 
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
AS OF 0300 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC FROM 31N62W TO 27N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 
NM N OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
FROM 31N51W TO 23N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM E OF 
THE TROUGH. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 
45W. OF NOTE OVER THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS 
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 45W-65W SUPPORTING 
THE SURFACE FEATURES. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 30W TO INCLUDE OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS.   
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E AND 
EXTEND FROM 31N62W TO 24N69W WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH TO DISSIPATE.  
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA