000 AXNT20 KNHC 220005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N09W TO 02N17W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 23W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THAT POINT AND CONTINUES ALONG 03S30W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 04S38W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 01S TO 06N E OF 23W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 27N85W PROVIDES SE TO S WIND FLOW OF 10-15 KT W OF 89W AND VARIABLE FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT ELSEWHERE. A RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA IN THE UPPER LEVELS ADVECTS TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC WATERS ACROSS THE BASIN...REFLECTED AS HIGH CLOUDS. ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM NW FLORIDA...ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI TO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA NEAR 29N92W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 27N95W TO NE MEXICO NEAR 25N97W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN STATES. OTHERWISE...FOG IS BEING REPORTED WITHIN 60 NM FROM THE TEXAS COAST...COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR FOG PROBABILITIES. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT WILL MOVE E-SE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BRINGING THE COLD FRONT TO EASTERN GULF WATERS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MONDAY NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NW NICARAGUA COVERS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS WHILE THE BASE OF A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS TO THE EASTERN BASIN. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SHALLOW MOISTURE IS MOVING OVER HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT SW WATERS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE IS ALSO OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN SEA ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS FAR REMOVED FROM THE BASIN...WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR TRADEWINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT...INCREASING TO 15 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE OVERALL CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... SHALLOW MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT SW WATERS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT HINDERS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM WHICH A COLD FROM EXTENDS ENTERING THE SW N ATLC WATERS FROM 30N64W SW TO 28N74W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N66W TO 26N70W TO 26N75W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED BETWEEN 50W AND 60W WITH BASE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 30N49W SW TO 22N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE SW N ATLC MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS