000
AXNT20 KNHC 211027
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
805 AM EDT SAT MAR 21 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                      
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 9N13W TO 
1S26W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 1S26W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA 
NEAR 4S38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 
10W-13W...FROM 4S-7S BETWEEN 23W-28W...AND FROM 1N-4S BETWEEN 
31W-35W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 
27N87W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF. GOES-R 
PROVING GROUND LOW STRATUS/FOG IFR ANIMATION SHOWS AN AREA OF 
PATCHY FOG ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST N OF 29N E OF 86W. FURTHER 
W...THE NW GULF HAS 5-10 KT SE SURFACE WINDS. MORE PATCHY FOG IS 
OVER THE W GULF W OF 94W TO INCLUDE THE TEXAS AND MEXICAN 
COASTS. A 1018 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS AT 30N94W. A 
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO S TEXAS AT 26N99W. A 
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 21N92W TO 
17N93W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE 
GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 87W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE E GULF E 
OF 90W WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W GULF...TEXAS... 
AND THE NORTH GULF STATES. EXPECT IN 24 HOUR FOR THE COLD FRONT 
TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO SOUTH TEXAS WITH SHOWERS. 
                   
CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                 
10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST 
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE 
NW CARIBBEAN. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE 
WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 17N AND E OF 63W. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER 
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND HONDURAS. IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN 
W OF 70W. NW FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS 
OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.  

...HISPANIOLA...                                                
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS 
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N72W 
TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 27N80W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER 
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N47W TO 23N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE FRONT. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM 26N50W TO 20N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE 
TROUGH. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 
40W. OF NOTE OVER THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS 
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-65W SUPPORTING 
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED 
OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR 36N6W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E AND EXTEND FROM 31N61W TO 
26N70W WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT TO 
DISSIPATE.  
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA