000
AXNT20 KNHC 210454
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
205 AM EDT SAT MAR 21 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                      
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 9N13W TO 
1N20W TO 1S25W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 1S25W TO THE COAST OF 
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4S38W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6S BETWEEN 21W-27W... AND 
FROM 2S-5S BETWEEN 31W-39W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 
27N87W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF. GOES-R 
PROVING GROUND LOW STRATUS/FOG IFR ANIMATION SHOWS AN AREA OF 
PATCHY FOG ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST N OF 29N E OF 86W. FURTHER 
W...THE NW GULF HAS 5-10 KT SE SURFACE WINDS. MORE PATCHY FOG IS 
OVER THE W GULF W OF 94W TO INCLUDE THE TEXAS AND MEXICAN 
COASTS. A 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER S TEXAS AT 30N96W. A COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 27N100W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS 
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 21N90W TO 17N91W. 10-15 KT NE 
SURFACE WINDS ARE THUS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 
87W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE E GULF E OF 90W WHILE UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W GULF...TEXAS...AND THE NORTH GULF 
STATES. EXPECT IN 24 HOUR FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 
CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO SOUTH TEXAS WITH SHOWERS. 
                   
CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                 
10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST 
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE 
NW CARIBBEAN. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS HOWEVER 
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 17N AND E OF 63W. MORE SHOWERS 
ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND 
HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE 
W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. NW FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT LITTLE 
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

...HISPANIOLA...                                                
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS 
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N75W 
TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 28N81W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER 
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N47W TO 24N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE FRONT. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM 31N45W TO 23N51W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE 
TROUGH. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 
40W. OF NOTE OVER THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS 
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-65W SUPPORTING 
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED 
OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR 36N6W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E AND EXTEND FROM 31N65W TO 
27N70W WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT TO 
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH SHOWERS. 
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA