000 AXNT20 KNHC 201755 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 23W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 16W-23W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON ANCHORED BY AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER HONDURAS. THIS SETUP IS PROVIDING THE GULF WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITHIN A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS. THE RIDGING ALOFT SUPPORTS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N88W THAT CONTINUES TO PROMOTE SLIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AHEAD...THE SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT WEAK FRONT ANTICIPATED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS EARLY SUNDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER HONDURAS NEAR 15N86W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT RESULTING IN MOSTLY FAIR SKIES AND CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE BASIN. WITH WEAK RIDGING TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION ALONG 20N...THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS WEAK WITH MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OCCURRING OUTSIDE OF THE AREA WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THIS SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT THROUGH SUNDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS INFLUENCE THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS OCCURRING OFFSHORE OF SW HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N73W. THIS OVERALL FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS EXIST WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY N OF 24N BETWEEN 43W-70W OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N47W W-SW TO 26N58W TO 29N76W. A PRE- FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 32N45W TO 22N52W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH. OTHERWISE...A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 30N W OF 72W TO THE BOUNDARY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND MOVE NE DURING THE WEEKEND WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SKIRTING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY W OF 70W. FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES NEAR 38N29W S-SW TO 20N45W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN