000 AXNT20 KNHC 191748 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU MAR 19 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N08W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 25W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 02N BETWEEN 01W-07W...AND FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 09W- 14W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING THE GULF WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITHIN A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS. THE RIDGING ALOFT SUPPORTS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N86W THAT CONTINUES TO PROMOTE SLIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE CONDITIONS. ONE EXCEPTION IS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT MEANDERS FROM ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA NE TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTO A WEAK 1015 MB LOW CENTERED IN WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING N OF 29N E OF 89W. SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT WEAK FRONT ANTICIPATED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS SUNDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES OVER A MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT RESULTING IN MOSTLY FAIR SKIES AND CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE BASIN. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION...THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS WEAK WITH MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OCCURRING OUTSIDE OF THE AREA WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THIS SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT THROUGH SUNDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS INFLUENCE THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS OCCURRING OFFSHORE OF SW HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N73W. THIS OVERALL FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS EXIST WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD TROUGHING IS NOTED N OF 28N OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION STEMMING FROM A DEEP LAYERED LOW CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND CANADA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N53W W-SW TO 27N70W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. TO THE NW...ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER GEORGIA THAT IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 30N W OF 74W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC S OF THE COLD FRONT IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N67W. FINALLY...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N29W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN