000 AXNT20 KNHC 191041 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N12W ALONG 2N14W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 17W. THE ITCZ IS COMPLETELY S OF THE EQUATOR. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR 2W- 6W AND FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 10W-13W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN DOMINATES THE GULF THIS MORNING. THE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE SE CONUS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INLAND OVER MISSISSIPPI TO TEXAS. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH A WEAK 1015 MB LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR TAMPA BAY WHERE IT BECOMES A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS FORT MYERS THEN ALONG 26N83W TO 28N86W WHERE IT BECOMES A WARM FRONT TO INLAND OVER PENSACOLA FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO SE LOUISIANA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 26N87W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE STATIONARY FRONT HAS BEGUN LIFTING N AS A WARM FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF EARLY SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN THEN NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 18N64W 18N75W TO 16N87W INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH SAT. FRESH E TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS EACH NIGHT BEGINNING ON THU NIGHT WITH STRONG TRADES BRIEFLY SAT NIGHT. MODERATE TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH SAT. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE TO OVER SW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND MOST OF HAITI FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 71W-74W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND WITH CLEAR SKIES. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N55W AND EXTENDS ALONG 28N64W TO 28N74W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO A WEAK 1015 MB LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR TAMPA THEN CONTINUES AS A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N36W TO A 1018 MB HIGH NE OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS 24N57W. THE COLD PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG 27N THEN WILL LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT LATE TODAY AHEAD OF A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE W ATLC N OF THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT. THIS SECOND COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N72W TO THE NW BAHAMAS ON FRI NIGHT AND FROM 32N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW