000 AXNT20 KNHC 190533 RRA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N12W ALONG 2N14W 2N20W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 50W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF TONIGHT WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 85W. THE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE SE CONUS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH A WEAK 1014 MB LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE ALONG 28N87W TO OVER LOUISIANA NEAR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 60/75 NM ALONG THE COAST FROM THE LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 26N89W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR SKIES TONIGHT. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT THU THROUGH FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF SAT NIGHT AND STALL. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 17N TO OVER HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 70W-74W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 16.5N TO OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BETWEEN 64W-68W AND OVER THE W END OF JAMAICA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH SAT. FRESH E TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS EACH NIGHT BEGINNING ON THU NIGHT WITH STRONG TRADES BRIEFLY SAT NIGHT. MODERATE TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH SAT. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 17N TO OVER W DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND MOST OF HAITI BETWEEN 70W-74W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND WITH CLEAR SKIES. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N59W AND EXTENDS ALONG 28N68W TO 28N76W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO A WEAK 1014 MB LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE THEN CONTINUES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH JUST S OF THE AZORES WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N32W 25N48W TO A 1018 MB HIGH N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS 24N64W. THE COLD PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD BEFORE IT STALLS NEAR 27N LATE TONIGHT INTO THU. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE UNITED STATES COAST. THE LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLC DURING FRI REACHING FROM NEAR 32N74W TO THE NW BAHAMAS ON FRI NIGHT AND FROM NEAR 32N66W TO CENTRAL CUBA SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW