000 AXNT20 KNHC 181754 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO 05N16W TO 01N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 01N20 TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 23W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 02W-06W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION N OF 28N AND A MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N66W W-SW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N82W AND ACROSS THE FAR NE GULF WATERS TO NEAR SLIDELL LOUISIANA. THE FRONT REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY AND PRECIPITATION-FREE ACROSS THE NE GULF...HOWEVER DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE COASTAL ZONES NORTH OF THE FRONT. TO THE WEST...AN UPPER TO MIDDLE LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SUPPORTING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FOCUSED ON A 1016 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR DALLAS. MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND MOISTURE ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE NW GULF GENERALLY W OF A LINE FROM 30N92W TO 22N97W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK 1018 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 27N91W THAT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT E-SE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS EAST...SLIPS ACROSS FLORIDA... AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC ON SAT...THE NEXT WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER A MAJORITY OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN BECOMES WESTERLY OVER THE GREATER AND LESSER ANTILLES THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT RESULTING IN MOSTLY FAIR SKIES AND CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE BASIN. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION...THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS WEAK WITH MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OCCURRING OUTSIDE OF THE AREA WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THIS SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT THROUGH SUNDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS INFLUENCE THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS OCCURRING OFFSHORE OF SW HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N73W. THIS OVERALL FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS EXIST WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD TROUGHING IS NOTED N OF 28N OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION STEMMING FROM A MID-LEVEL LOW CENTER OFF THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA CANADA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA NEAR 32N65W W-SW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 77W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED SOUTHWARD FROM THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N80W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC