000 AXNT20 KNHC 181458 RRA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W ALONG 4N16W TO 2N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N25W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 34W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 2N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN 1W-5W AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 12W- 19W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 38W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS W CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS MOVING ACROSS W TEXAS EXTENDING THE UPPER RIDGE NE ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. A SURFACE LOW AND FRONT ARE INLAND OVER TEXAS AND COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER W TEXAS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW GULF W OF A LINE FROM MATAGORDA TEXAS TO TAMPICO MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF WITH A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 26N89W. THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED IN THE NE GULF EXTENDS INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS. SURFACE HIGH WILL MEANDER E GULF TODAY AND THU THEN SHIFT NW OF THE AREA ON FRI WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO FLORIDA BAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E THROUGH THE NE GULF ON FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN TO THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS THEN N ACROSS W CUBA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS USHERED IN BY THE TRADE WINDS DOT THE AREA WITHIN 180 NM OF LINE FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W AND THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM MARTINIQUE TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. OTHERWISE THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH FRI. FRESH E TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS EACH NIGHT BEGINNING ON THU NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT. MODERATE TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRI. HISPANIOLA... GENERALLY FAIR SKIES DOMINATE MOST OF THE ISLAND THIS MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND MOST OF HAITI. LINGERING MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THU. MOISTURE WILL THEN INCREASE ON FRI GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC FROM 57W-5W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N79W OVER GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND TO 24N77W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N43W THEN EXTENDS ALONG 22N55W TO 20N60W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO NEAR 20N65W. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 27N47W TO 19N50W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 27N AND WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 23N. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH JUST N OF THE AZORES. THE COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC THIS MORNING AND WILL STALL E TO W ALONG 27N IN THE W ATLC LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NE THU AS A WARM FRONT N OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLC N OF THE BAHAMAS ON THU NIGHT REACHING FROM 32N74W TO THE NW BAHAMAS ON FRI NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW