000
AXNT20 KNHC 180543
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
205 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                      
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC 
NEAR 7N12W ALONG 3N16W TO 2N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES ALONG 2N40W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 48W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 2N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E 
OF 4W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 14W-21W AND 
S OF 2N TO ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 44W-49W.  
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL OVER THE E GULF 
OF MEXICO TO NE FLORIDA. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS MOVING ACROSS W 
TEXAS AND IS DRAWING THE UPPER RIDGE FROM NE FLORIDA W TO THE 
CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW 
OVER W TEXAS IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF W 
OF A LINE FROM GALVESTON TEXAS TO TAMPICO MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE 
RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF WITH A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 28N93W. 
THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED IN THE NE GULF EXTENDS INLAND OVER 
THE SE CONUS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE N GULF 
COAST FROM TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. SURFACE 
HIGH WILL MEANDER OVER THE N/CENTRAL GULF THROUGH WED THEN SHIFT 
TO THE SE GULF ON THU AND THU NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES E 
THROUGH THE NE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN RE-BUILD SE FROM 
THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO FLORIDA BAY ON FRI.
                               
CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                 
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN TO THE TIP OF 
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS THEN N-NW TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO THE 
GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO 
DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS USHERED 
IN BY THE TRADE WINDS DOT THE AREA FROM 16N-19N ACROSS THE 
CARIBBEAN FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO BELIZE. OTHERWISE THE 
CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. FRESH TO 
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA 
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH THU. FRESH E TRADE WINDS WILL 
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON FRI AND SAT NIGHTS WITH 
POSSIBLE STRONG TRADE WINDS ON SAT NIGHT. MODERATE TRADE WINDS 
WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRI. 
 
HISPANIOLA...                                                
GENERALLY FAIR SKIES DOMINATE MOST OF THE ISLAND TONIGHT WITH 
SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SW DOMINICAN 
REPUBLIC AND SE HAITI. LINGERING MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THU. MOISTURE WILL THEN 
INCREASE ON FRI GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                             
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING 
A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N44W THEN EXTENDS 
ALONG 26N52W TO 22N57W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO NEAR 21N66W. A 
SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 26N48W TO 
20N53W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE 
COLD FRONT N OF 28N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE 
SURFACE TROUGH N OF 23N. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.  
A BROAD SURFA