000 AXNT20 KNHC 171648 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1615 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 6N10W TO 3N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N30W AND ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 41W TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 4W- 15W...AND FROM 02S-03N BETWEEN 40W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE BASIN THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD THE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N94W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF FROM 27N97W TO 18N93W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. W TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SURFACE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. BY THURSDAY THE HIGH WILL DISSIPATE AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EMERGES OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS ANCHORED OVER COLOMBIA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NW ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. TRADE WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH A SMALL AREA OF 25 KT WINDS N OF THE COLOMBIA COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ARE OCCURRING FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 60W-83W INCLUDING JAMAICA AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC WILL APPROACH HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA LATE WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND IN NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE ISLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE TO THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N73W IS SUPPORTING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER W OF 67W. AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 57W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N49W TO 24N60W TO 22N74W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N55W TO 21N62W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 125 NM E OF A LINE FROM 32N53W TO 24N58W. A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC S OF 32N WITH FAIR WEATHER AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE SE US COAST TONIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO