000 AXNT20 KNHC 171042 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W ALONG 5N14W TO 3N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N25W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 38W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 4W-7W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N- 4N BETWEEN 7W-20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT E ACROSS THE W ATLC RESULTING A SHIFT OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE AXIS NOW EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF LOUISIANA. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W GULF EXTENDING FROM TEXAS BETWEEN CORPUS CHRISTI AND BROWNSVILLE ALONG 25N96W 21N95W TO THE COAST OF S MEXICO NEAR 19N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE W GULF W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE N GULF ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 27N91W. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY WED. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MEANDER OVER THE N/CENTRAL GULF THROUGH WED THEN SHIFT TO THE SE GULF ON THU AND THU NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES E THROUGH THE NE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER COLOMBIA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NW ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS USHERED IN BY THE TRADE WINDS DOT THE CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 71W- 80W. OTHERWISE THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FRESH E TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON THU AND FRI NIGHTS. MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH THU. HISPANIOLA... GENERALLY FAIR SKIES DOMINATE THE ISLAND THIS MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS S HAITI. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT E ACROSS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N50W THEN EXTENDS ALONG 25N61W TO 22N71W WHERE IT DISSIPATES OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 23N75W. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 26N54W TO 21N61W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT E OF 64W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS W OF THE FRONT WITH A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 28N76W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES. THE COLD FRONT WILL RACE SE AND DISSIPATE N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON WED. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC TONIGHT AND EXTEND FROM BERMUDA ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS TO THE CAY SAL BANK EARLY WED THEN STALL FROM 32N58W ALONG 27N65W TO 23N80W LATE WED. THE SEGMENT OF THE FRONT W OF 75W WILL MOVE N AS WARM FRONT THROUGH THE N BAHAMAS WED NIGHT THEN ACCELERATE NE N OF THE BAHAMAS ON THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW