000 AXNT20 KNHC 161742 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO 02N15W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N15W TO 01N18W TO 02N26W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 34W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 02W-11W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN 17W-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE GULF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA REGION NEAR 24N110W...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE BASIN...AND BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION. THE RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND MUCH OF THE GULF. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS AN AREA OF SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE SW GULF...BETWEEN THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST...AND RIDGING ALONG EASTERN MEXICO. A 1017 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N93W ANCHORED THE TROUGHING THAT EXTENDING N-NE TO JUST OFFSHORE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM 28N97W TO 19N92W. THE SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N83W AND IS PROVIDING GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE NW FLOW ALOFT FOR THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY EAST OF 75W AND REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE. OVERALL CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE ARE IN FACT STABLE AS WELL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BASIN WIDE. A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS NOTED ALONG THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA THAT IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND INLAND PORTIONS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ...HISPANIOLA... GENERALLY FAIR SKIES DOMINATE THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVERHEAD. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA CANADA THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N58W AND EXTENDING SW TO 27N70W AND THEN TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 75W. A PRE- FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ANALYZED FROM 22N64W TO 29N58W AND PROVIDES FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. OTHERWISE...AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND INFLUENCE CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF 28N28W WITH AXIS EXTENDING W-SW TO