000 AXNT20 KNHC 161034 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N11W ALONG 5N12W TO 3N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N22W 1N27W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 35W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA E OF 11W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ BETWEEN 12W-23W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG S OVER THE W ATLC AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THEN NW TO THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM 24N95W TO THE COAST OF S MEXICO NEAR 19N92W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE W GULF W OF LINE FROM GALVESTON TEXAS ALONG 24N94W TO 19N92W. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD S OVER THE N GULF ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH OVER NE TEXAS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WED. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE N GULF TODAY AND WILL SHIFT E ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL GULF ON TUE THEN WILL MOVE OVER THE SE GULF STARTING WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NW ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN WHERE UPPER MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED. ISOLATED FAST MOVING...LOW LEVEL SHOWERS...USHERED IN BY THE TRADE WINDS...DOT THE CARIBBEAN N OF 14N E OF 65W ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 72W-81W. THE TRADE WIND FLOW COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF FROM S NICARAGUA TO PANAMA S OF 12N W OF 81W. OTHERWISE THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HISPANIOLA... GENERALLY FAIR SKIES DOMINATE THE ISLAND THIS MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED FAST MOVING...LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE S PORTION OF HAITI. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. MOISTURE INCREASE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONT TO THE N INCREASING SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND FOR TUE INTO WED BEFORE THE FRONT DISSIPATES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... STRONG UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG S OVER THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N62W AND EXTENDS TO 27N75W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR WEST PALM BEACH TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 35N37W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC N OF 27N IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N25W AND EXTENDS TO 27N34W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 26N39W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL WILL RACE SE AND DISSIPATE N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES TUE AND WED. A SURFACE HIGH WILL DEVELOP OFF NE FLORIDA TODAY AND SHIFT SE TO OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT THEN E TO BETWEEN BERMUDA AND HISPANIOLA ON TUE NIGHT BEFORE REACHING BETWEEN BERMUDA AND PUERTO RICO ON WED NIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC ON TUE NIGHT REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS ON WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW