000 AXNT20 KNHC 160521 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N12W TO 4N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N26W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-38W THEN S INTO THE SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM S OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E OF 3W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 10W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 28W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING S OVER THE W ATLC AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THEN NW TO THE LOUISIANA/ TEXAS BORDER. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM 24N95W TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE W GULF S OF 29N W OF 94W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE N GULF AND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE N GULF THEN PERSIST THROUGH WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE HAS SHIFTED W ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NW ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN WHERE UPPER MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. ISOLATED FAST MOVING... LOW LEVEL SHOWERS...USHERED IN BY THE TRADE WINDS...DOT THE CARIBBEAN N OF 14N E OF 67W ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 70W-80W...AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 16N- 19N W OF 84W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN. THE TRADE WIND FLOW COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA S OF 13N W OF 81W. OTHERWISE THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN ALLOWING THE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO DIMINISH. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST OFF COLOMBIA MAINLY AT NIGHT BUT GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. HISPANIOLA... GENERALLY FAIR SKIES DOMINATE THE ISLAND TONIGHT WITH SOME ISOLATED FAST MOVING...LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE W PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND E HAITI. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF MON. MOISTURE WILL THEN INCREASE LATE MON WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONT TO THE N INCREASING SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND FOR TUE INTO WED BEFORE THE FRONT DISSIPATES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING S OVER THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N67W AND EXTENDS TO 29N79W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC S OF 27N INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 35N42W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 30N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N27W AND EXTENDS TO 28N35W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 25N41W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SE AND REACH FROM 32N60W ALONG 27N65W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY EARLY MON THEN WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM 32N51W ALONG 22N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS EARLY TUE BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING ALONG 21N THROUGH EARLY WED. A SECOND FRONT WILL PASS S OF 30N EARLY WED REACHING AS FAR S AS 27N BY LATE WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW